Amature Winter Weather Forecasts

[buffettchristmas]

Here are some i've found around the web:

I particually like this one

THE FOLLOWING IS QUOTED FROM ACCUWEATHER.COM FORUMS
Factors I used in this forecast: -PDO, Neutral ENSO conditions which are expected to remain through the fall and possibly remain neutral or become a weak El Nino during the winter. I also used factors such as low sunspot activity (extended solar minimum), the recent cooling of the globe, and other natural oscillations.

Northeast (PA, NY, MA, ME, VT, etc.) :

-Precipitation: I think that precip. in this area could be above normal.
-Temperatures: Average to Below Average. Coldest In December and January

Mid Atlantic (VA, MD, DC, NJ, etc.) :

-Precipitation: I think that precipitation (particularly snowfall) will be average to above average. Overall I think that this winter could definitely make up for some of the snow drought that has plagued the area for the past three winters.
-Temperatures: Avg. to below avg. Maybe a slight chance of above avg. but I doubt it. Coldest periods will be during November and December with other cold snaps throughout the rest of the winter.

Southeast (NC, SC, GA, FL, MS, LA, AL, AK, etc.) :

-Precipitation: I think that precip will be avg. Maybe above avg. if we get lucky. I do believe that we will recover quite a bit from the drought and may come close to completely busting it.
-Temperatures: Avg. to below. A moderate chance of above avg. but nothing compared to the winter of 06-07! Coldest periods could be November and December.

Midwest & Great Lakes:

-Precipitation: Drier than last winter but still pretty snowy.
-Temperatures: Below Average. Coldest periods will be...Ummm...A good chunk of the winter. ^ ^'

West:

-Precipitation: Drier than last winter.
-Temperatures: Average. We'll leave it at that.

Pacific Northwest & The Coast:

-Precipitation: Average to slightly above average.
-Temperatures: Below average due to a negative PDO. Could be cold for the majority of the winter.

Southwest:

-Temperatures: Above average.
-Precipitation: Below normal. Monsoonevans said that a ridge could set up in that region so I looked into It and It looks like it could happen.

I agree with monsoon also that from late December through February the majority of country will be very cold.

[lightitup]

woohoo I liked his fore cast too.
Mid Atlantic (VA, MD, DC, NJ, etc.) :

-Precipitation: I think that precipitation (particularly snowfall) will be average to above average. Overall I think that this winter could definitely make up for some of the snow drought that has plagued the area for the past three winters.
-Temperatures: Avg. to below avg. Maybe a slight chance of above avg. but I doubt it. Coldest periods will be during November and December with other cold snaps throughout the rest of the winter.

[Christy Carol]

We just need a really hard freeze. A week or two below normal would help us kill all these dang blasted bugs!

[number4son]

I predict that winter will occur sometime after fall and will be colder than summer but not as cold as in the Arctic.

[buffettchristmas]

I predict that winter will occur sometime after fall and will be colder than summer but not as cold as in the Arctic.

this is the ruit that the amature weather forcasters normally go heh

[lightitup]

I would like a hard freeze on Monday of next week please. I want it like really bad. :f06:

[YodaPHX]

Well I hate that forcast.
Above average tempatures. That means Christmas in the 90's. I sure hope that guys predictions are worthless, just as all the other wheather men.

[buffettchristmas]

some more I found Remember it is EARLY to forecast the meteorological winter which is December, Jan, and February

It looks like people are saying it will be an "early-in/early-out" winter, in other words, cold and high percipitation earlyer in the year, ex. December, January, and Through February be a bit more normal or above normal.


Now, the winter of 1996 was a weak la nina. By saying that, I am not implying that this winter will be like 1996. However, it will be colder and it will be snowier.


Temperatures should average about 2-5 degrees below normal until we reach the months of February and March...

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December 5-12 shows snow and ice events for Southeastern & Central U.S., with colder than normal temperatures, heavy rains from the Gulf of Mexico combined with cold arctic air from Canada combining to prpduce snow and ice. Strong winds will make the storms damaging. The Central & Southern Rockies, and southern Plains into northern Texas will be affected, as well as states as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia.

That early December 2008 winter event, for example, continues into the Mid-Atlantic region the week of Dec. 12-19, and will arrive by Friday, December 12, making for a messy weekend on the east coast and northeastern metropolitan areas with heavy snows in Philadelphia, New York, Washington D.C., and parts of the Southeast. Blizzard warnings due to the high winds will increase snow accumulations in the cities and suburbs. Roads will be treacherous the second and third weeks of December.

http://theoweatherservice.blogspot.com/2008/08/theos-autumn-2008-winter-2009-weather.html

acutally a really nice read, not TOO technical

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Niyologist's LONG RANGE FORECAST 2008-2009 FOR THE EAST COAST AND MID-WEST
BLOCKBUSTER WINTER OF 08'-09' MAY BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED!!!!

This Winter will definitely bring more snow than Last Year due to a Neutral La Nina that will continue through this fall. A Neutral La Nina usually brings more than 25 inches of snow as far south as Richmond, Virgina and 100 inches of snow as far north as Bangor, ME. This winter will be similar to 95-96 because the Earth will be closer to the sun by January 4th, 2009 and that will increase the moisture content in every winter storm. There will also be a Blank Sun (according to AstroMet's Long Range) this will result in a much snowier winter than expected, but the sun will not interfere with the temps of the air and ocean, but instead act as a moisture synthesizer which will give off stronger and more fierce winter storms than last year. The cold and warm would usually give off decent snowstorms, but since there will be more extreme amounts off cold air concentrated at the Mid-West and East Coast. The Sun will intensify the warm air temporarily and give more clashes of warm and cold than last year as well. http://forums.accuweather.com/style_emoticons/default/blink.gif

The Usual Nor'easter Track

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12006-1220807686.jpg

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12006-1220807732.jpg



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UPDATE!!!!! MY WINTER FORECAST 2008-2009!

Konnichiwa! :3

Well kiddies, summer is over by my books and the fall colors are really starting to pop up all across the country (except for parts of the southeast and the deep south) and you know what that means...WINTER IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER! http://forums.accuweather.com/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif This year, unlike last we will be dealing with neutral ENSO conditions meaning the southeast ridge will be non-existent. As of now it appears the winter will be cold and snowy/icy for the eastern 2/3rds of the country...Just like winters used to be. http://forums.accuweather.com/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

Ps. We will also be dealing with a negative NAO, negative AO, neutral to negative AMO, and a negative PDO. That's a lot of cold! http://forums.accuweather.com/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

~`Region-by-Region Forecast`~


Northeast:

-Temperatures: Well below average. Below average by 3-5 degrees.

-Precipitation: Above average. Snow will be very abundant this year with a small amount if ice thrown in too. The mountains can expect their first snowfall by the end of this month or the beginning of next. Northern new england can expect their first flurry/light snow shower event by the beginning to middle part of october. Expect the first accumulating snow to occur with the arrival of November and blizzard conditions to occur with some storms in December and January.

Ps. For those who are Christmas fans like me, yes, this christmas will be cold and most likely white. http://forums.accuweather.com/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

Mid-Atlantic:

-Temperatures: Below average. Below average by 2-4 degrees.

-Precipitation: Above average. Snow will also be abundant this year in places such as NJ, MD, DC, and VA. Expect first accumulating snows by december. It's unfortunate but the region is also overdue for an Ice Storm. I think it's possible that we may see at least one this winter. Blizzard conditions possible this winter.

Ps. For those who are Christmas fans like me, yes, this christmas will be cold.

Southeast:

-Temperatures: Average to slightly below average by 0-2 degrees. Temps. may be above average along the gulf and in southern Florida.

-Precipitation: Average to slightly above average. This region will see more snow than usual but nothing that hasn't been seen before. Could see first accumulating snow by January. Ice events possible this winter.

Mid-West:

-Temperatures: Well below average in the northern to central sections(Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, North & South Dakota, Nebraska). Average to slightly below average in the south(Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas).

-Precipitation: Above average. Very snowy which is probably not what some want to hear considering the flooding that occurred in spring and early summer.

Great Lakes/Ohio Valley:

-Temperatures: Average to slightly below average by 0-1 degrees.

-Precipitation: Below average. Although it will be drier than previous years the great lakes area will still see typical "Lake Effect" snows.

West:

-Temperatures: Average. Maybe slightly above average by 0-1+ degrees.

-Precipitation: Below average. Will still see some snow but nothing compared to astronomical amounts seen last year.

Pacific Northwest:

-Temperatures: Below average by 2-4 degrees.

-Precipitation: Average. Possibly slightly below. Although this will be the case expect many strong storms to swing through the area.

Southwest:

-Temperatures: Average by -1, 0, +1 degrees. Very cold nights.

-Precipitation: Average to slightly above. Snow events will occur at higher elevations.

Rockies:

-Temperatures: Below average by 1-2 degrees.

-Precipitation: Average to slightly above average. Although it wont be as snowy as last year the Rockies will still have a decent ski season. Blizzard conditions likely. White christmas likely.

Appalachians:

-Temperatures: Well below average. Below average by 3-5 degrees.

-Precipitation: Well above average. Snow will be abundant this year! This will be very obvious as the ski season will wonderful. Blizzard conditions are likely this winter and it appears that a white christmas is in store. http://forums.accuweather.com/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif



~THE END!~

[Christy Carol]

Southeast:

-Temperatures: Average to slightly below average by 0-2 degrees. Temps. may be above average along the gulf and in southern Florida.

-Precipitation: Average to slightly above average. This region will see more snow than usual but nothing that hasn't been seen before. Could see first accumulating snow by January. Ice events possible this winter.




Maybe for once the weather guys are getting it right! I am thrilled to see this!

[DoubleA]

Normal Christmas over here...sunny!

[number4son]

We have had some killer storms in December, but that was years ago. I'd like to see it again this year.

[Christy Carol]

Last good snowstorm we got was '99 or '00 right before Valentines Day. We got 16 inches of the white stuff. Just no ice please!